Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Dec 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
December 8, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Dec 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C2/Sf flare at 08/1959Z. This flare was associated with a 14
degree filament eruption from a sigmoid region on SXI imagery near
N01W07. A Type II radio sweep (808 km/s) also accompanied this
flare. Region 710 (S08E47) was numbered today and produced a C1
flare at 08/0414Z. No other significant activity was noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. An isolated C-class flare is possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A weak high speed stream, which began on 06 December
continues to decline, ending the period near 450 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Dec 082
  • Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/015
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 010/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.