Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Dec 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Dec 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C2/Sf flare at 08/1959Z. This flare was associated with a 14
degree filament eruption from a sigmoid region on SXI imagery near
N01W07. A Type II radio sweep (808 km/s) also accompanied this
flare. Region 710 (S08E47) was numbered today and produced a C1
flare at 08/0414Z. No other significant activity was noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. An isolated C-class flare is possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. A weak high speed stream, which began on 06 December
continues to decline, ending the period near 450 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Dec 082
• Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 080/080/085
• 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/015
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 010/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01