Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 8, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flare activity occurred
as the disk is dominated by a large coronal hole.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to major storm levels. The
high speed solar wind, emanating from the mid-disk coronal hole,
increased in radial speed around 0600 UTC. The current radial speed
is near 650 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days. High speed solar wind should buffet the magnetosphere through
December 11.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Dec 094
  • Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 095/095/100
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 007/015
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 025/040
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 025/035-030/035-025/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/40/35
  • Minor storm 35/40/35
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/40
  • Minor storm 50/55/50
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.