Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk was spotless. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with periods of active conditions possible for 09 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 10 August, with quiet to unsettled conditions for 11 August.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Aug 066
• Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 015/015-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/20/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/25/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01