Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Aug 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
August 9, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06E07) developed in size and complexity, but produced only a B-class flare.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 500 km/s due to a geoeffective coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 August. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor to major storm periods, on 10 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Conditions should become quiet to unsettled on 11 August as the coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 08 Aug 069
  • Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 023/023
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/010-015/025-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/30/20
  • Minor storm 05/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/40/30
  • Minor storm 10/30/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/15/10

SpaceRef staff editor.