Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Aug 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06E07) developed in size and complexity, but produced only a B-class flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 500 km/s due to a geoeffective coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 August. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor to major storm periods, on 10 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Conditions should become quiet to unsettled on 11 August as the coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Aug 069
- Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 023/023
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 007/010-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/30/20
- Minor storm 05/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/40/30
- Minor storm 10/30/20
- Major-severe storm 05/15/10
