Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Aug 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 656 (S12E45) has
produced several events through the last 24 hours including a long
duration B5 flare at 08/1433 UT and a C2/Sf flare at 08/1724 UTC.
The region has shown continued growth in both white light coverage
and sunspot count and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A full halo CME was observed today in the SOHO/LASCO
imagery. The event was first seen in C2 at 08/0854 UTC. An
analysis of the data indicate that this was a backside event and not
directed toward Earth.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 656 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speeds
that started out the last 24 hour period at above 480 km/s has
gradually declined to around 400 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

• Class M 15/20/20
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
O

• bserved 08 Aug 105
• Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 105/110/110
• 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 011/020
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 010/015-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01