Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 8, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 08 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 656 (S12E45) has
produced several events through the last 24 hours including a long
duration B5 flare at 08/1433 UT and a C2/Sf flare at 08/1724 UTC.
The region has shown continued growth in both white light coverage
and sunspot count and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A full halo CME was observed today in the SOHO/LASCO
imagery. The event was first seen in C2 at 08/0854 UTC. An
analysis of the data indicate that this was a backside event and not
directed toward Earth.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 656 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speeds
that started out the last 24 hour period at above 480 km/s has
gradually declined to around 400 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

  • Class M 15/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • bserved 08 Aug 105
  • Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 105/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 011/020
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 010/015-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.