Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Aug 2003
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A C2 flare occurred
at 1436Z from the east limb. Region 424 (S18W14) continues its
gradual decay and has simplified to a beta gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 425 (S09W17) was the source of a C1 flare at
1636Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 424 has the potential for isolated
M-class events. Activity from the east limb is likely to continue
and possibly increase over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. Periods
of southward Bz near – 8 nT produced major and minor storm periods
early in the day. Solar wind speed increased from 600 km/s to near
800 km/s at 0600Z and has remained elevated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor
storm conditions are possible on day one of the period. On day two
and three of the period high speed stream effects are expected to
diminish resulting in quiet to unsettled conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
- Class M 40/40/40
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Aug 133
- Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 140/140/145
- 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/015
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 025/034
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 20/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/35/35
- Minor storm 30/20/20
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
