Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Apr 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A non Earth-directed CME was first observed off the west limb on SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 08/1750Z. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind velocities remained elevated due to the continuing high speed stream. Velocities from the ACE satellite ranged from 604 km/sec to 778 km/sec during the past 24 hours. IMF Bz continued to fluctuate between -4.9 nT to 5.7 nT. The 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next two days (09-10 April). Isolated minor storm levels are possible at high latitudes during this period due to the high speed stream. Activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day three (11 April).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 08 Apr 070
- Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 009/012
- Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 008/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/15
- Minor storm 05/05/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
