Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 865 (S09W90) and 867 (S16W67) continued to decay. Regions 866 (S06W63) and 869 (S12W04) have remained quiescent.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor storm periods for the next two days (09 – 10 April). Quiet to unsettled conditions should follow on 11 April.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 08 Apr 091
• Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 090/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 012/010-010/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
• Minor storm 15/05/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/20
• Minor storm 25/10/05
• Major-severe storm 15/05/01