Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Sep 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Sep 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 909 (S09E09) produced a long duration B4.2 flare at 07/0746 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period at middle latitudes between 07/0600 – 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Sep 087
• Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 006/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01