Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 972 ((S06W19) is a Bxo spot group. This region remains the only numbered spot group on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Oct 068
• Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01