Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Oct 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 07 2203 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 813 (S08W08) continues to show slow decay in sunspot coverage. The magnetic gamma structure in Region 813 is weak, but remains intact. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 813 remains capable of producing an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 08 October. Mostly active to isolated minor storm conditions may be possible on 09 and 10 October due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 07 Oct 079
- Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 080/080/080
- 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 002/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/010-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/35/25
- Minor storm 01/15/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/35/35
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
