Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today.
Region 678 (N12W75) showed slight growth in spot area today and
produced a minor B-class flare. Disk and limb activity was sparse
throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Oct 094
• Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01