Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 7, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. A long duration
X-ray enhancement was observed at 0318Z reaching the B8 level. Two
CME’s were observed in LASCO imagery and determined to be back
sided. The visible disk is almost spotless with Region 495 (S18W89)
the only spot group observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Continued low level X-ray enhancements are possible due
to back side activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began at 02/1105Z and reached a peak
value of 1570 pfu on 03/0815Z, ended today at 07/1230Z. A small
enhancement of greater than 10 MeV proton flux was observed at
around 07/1730Z but is currently below threshold. The source of
this enhancement is likely activity from the backside.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storms
levels possible. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08-09
November. A returning coronal hole is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position on 10 November with active to isolated minor
storm levels possible.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 10/10/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 07 Nov 091
  • Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 090/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 011/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/015-010/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/30

  • Minor storm 15/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/15

SpaceRef staff editor.