Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled with one period of minor storming. Real-time solar wind data are consistent with the onset of a high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 May. Isolated active periods are possible due to a geoeffective recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet 09 – 10 May.

III. Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May

• Class M 05/05/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 May 076
• Predicted 08 May-10 May 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 07 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 000/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/012-006/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/25
• Minor storm 25/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05