Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 May 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled with one period of minor storming. Real-time solar wind data are consistent with the onset of a high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 May. Isolated active periods are possible due to a geoeffective recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet 09 – 10 May.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May-10 May
- Class M 05/05/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 07 May 076
- Predicted 08 May-10 May 075/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 07 May 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 000/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/012-006/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/15/15
- Minor storm 15/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/25/25
- Minor storm 25/15/15
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05