Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Mar 2003

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 296
(N13W18), a relatively large and moderately complex region, has been
dormant for the duration of its transit on the visible disk. This
region was in a slow decay phase over the past few days, but still
shows some complexity. Region 301 (N22W05) though small, is in a
slow growth phase, and exhibited considerable plage fluctuations and
minor surging throughout the period. Newly numbered Region 306
(N05E76) rotated into view this period; a relatively large sunspot
group is evident, but limb proximity hinders a more thorough
analysis. This region was the likely source of a large CME observed
off the NE limb early on 6 March. Three other new sunspot groups
emerged today and were numbered as 303 (S18W47), 304 (S13W16), and
305 (S22E27).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 296, 301, and 306 all have potential for C-class flares.
There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from Regions 296 and
306.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods
were observed during local nighttime hours at all latitudes. The
high speed coronal hole stream responsible for the disturbed periods
over the past few days has gradually declined to near normal levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
periods are possible at mostly higher latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar

• Class M 15/20/20
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Mar 150
• Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 155/160/160
• 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 015/025
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 010/012-010/012-008/010