Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jun 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jun 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind data indicated the unsettled levels were due to increased solar wind velocities and IMF changes associated with a solar sector boundary crossing at around 07/0900Z (away to toward orientation). Velocities reached a peak of 551 km/sec at 07/1604Z, then gradually decreased. IMF changes included increased Bt (peak reading 10 nT at 07/0856Z) and mostly southward Bz after 07/0530Z (minimum -7 nT at 07/0652Z).

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (08 – 10 June).

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Jun 066
• Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01