Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 7, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There
were two C-class events. The first was a C3/Sf from Region 772
(S18W44) at 1342 UTC, and the second was a C2.5 from Region 776
(S06E47) at 1914 UTC. Neither of these regions has shown dramatic
changes during the past 24 hours. However, Region 776 continues to
be the largest group on the disk. There was some new flux emergence
and growth in Region 775 (N10E35), but the group didn’t produce any
flares. A quiescent filament erupted from the northeast part of the
disk at about 0900 UTC and was associated with a CME observed by
LASCO. The CME is centered over the northeast limb and is about 75
degrees wide: it does not appear to have any earthward directed

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event. Regions
772 and 776 are the most likely sources for activity although Region
775 might also contribute if the current growth trend continues.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz
went through an interval between 06/1800-07/0400 UTC with weakly but
persistently negative values ranging from 0 nT to -7 nT. This
resulted in unsettled to active levels between 06/2100-07/0300 UTC
followed by a minor storm interval from 0300-0600 UTC and another
active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been at quiet to
unsettled levels since 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods for the first day (08 June). Conditions should be
unsettled for the second day (09 June) and are expected to decrease
to quiet to unsettled for the third day (10 June).

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 07 Jun 109
  • Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 110/110/105
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 010/015-010/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/25
  • Minor storm 20/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.