Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jun 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
June 7, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W04)
produced an M1/1f flare at 06/2338 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 380

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both have the potential for
continued C-class and M-class flaring. There is a chance for an
isolated X-class event from Region 375.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active with periods of minor
storm conditions for the next three days. These conditions are
expected due to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

  • Class M 50/50/50
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 07 Jun 133
  • Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 130/125/120
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 010/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 020/023
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 020/025-020/025-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/45/45
  • Minor storm 30/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.