Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jun 2003
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W04)
produced an M1/1f flare at 06/2338 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot
count and continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 380
(S16E68).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both have the potential for
continued C-class and M-class flaring. There is a chance for an
isolated X-class event from Region 375.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active with periods of minor
storm conditions for the next three days. These conditions are
expected due to a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 07 Jun 133
- Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 130/125/120
- 90 Day Mean 07 Jun 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 010/013
- Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 020/023
- Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/45/45
- Minor storm 30/30/30
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10
