Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (July 08 – 09). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (10 July) with active levels possible at high latitudes due to a corotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Jul 066
• Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/10
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01