Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jul 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jul 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been low with two C-class flares from Region 898 (S06W55). Region 899 (S05E40) was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low, although there is a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The solar wind speed remains elevated due to a coronal hole high speed stream but has steadily declined during the past 24 hours. Enhancement of 10 MeV protons continues but has been steadily declining. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for July 8, then active on July 9 with a chance for minor storm periods due to the arrival of the flank of the July 6 CME. Unsettled to active conditions due to persistence are expected for July 10.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Jul 080
• Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 007/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 007/010-020/025-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/35/30
• Minor storm 05/25/15
• Major-severe storm 01/20/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/35/25
• Minor storm 15/30/15
• Major-severe storm 10/25/05