Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jul 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N12W04)
produced an M4.9/Sn flare at 07/1629 UTC. This event also had an
associated 180 sfu Tenflare and a full halo CME, which was observed
by LASCO imagery. Region 786 has grown in both white light area
coverage and sunspot count, and has maintained its magnetic delta
configuration. Two other events were observed by LASCO imagery
earlier in the period. The first was a faint partial halo event
which was first observed at 06/2126 UTC. Data for this event
indicates it is probably a back-sided event and not Earth directed.
The second event was a CME observed with a possible partial halo
beginning around 07/1250 UTC. This event was likely associated with
an 11 degree long disappearing filament centered at N07E00 between
07/1033 – 1148 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 is capable of producing an isolated M-class
event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions. Activity is expected due to possible
effects from the CME observed on 05 July, a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream, today’s M4 halo CME, and the CME associated with
the disappearing filament centered at N07E00.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

• Class M 50/50/50
• Class X 10/10/10
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Jul 125
• Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 120/120/115
• 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 015/025-020/030-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/35/35
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/45/40
• Minor storm 20/25/20
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10