Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jul 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Low level B-class
flares were observed during the last 24 hours. The largest event
was a B4/Sf at 07/1719 UTC from Region 641 (N15E12), which is now a
spotless region. The event was reported in H-alpha imagery as a
parallel ribbon flare with a small disappearing filament along the
regions inversion line. Several CME’s were observed from the
SOHO/LASCO imagery during the period, none of which seem to be Earth
directed. A full halo CME was first observed in C2 at 06/2006 UTC.
All indications are that this was a backside event. This is the
second backside full halo event reported in the past 48 hours. A
new region was numbered today as Region 642 (S08E63).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
O

• bserved 07 Jul 079
• Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 080/085/090
• 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
O

• bserved Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/010-005/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05