Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jul 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
July 7, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Low level B-class
flares were observed during the last 24 hours. The largest event
was a B4/Sf at 07/1719 UTC from Region 641 (N15E12), which is now a
spotless region. The event was reported in H-alpha imagery as a
parallel ribbon flare with a small disappearing filament along the
regions inversion line. Several CME’s were observed from the
SOHO/LASCO imagery during the period, none of which seem to be Earth
directed. A full halo CME was first observed in C2 at 06/2006 UTC.
All indications are that this was a backside event. This is the
second backside full halo event reported in the past 48 hours. A
new region was numbered today as Region 642 (S08E63).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • bserved 07 Jul 079
  • Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 080/085/090
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • bserved Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 005/010-005/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.