Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jul 2003

SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Although
Region 397 (N12W52) produced the majority of today’s activity, all
events were limited to B and C-class flares. This region has
undergone slight decay during the period but retains the delta
magnetic structure in the central portion of the spot cluster.
Region 400 (N05W10) also decreased in penumbral coverage over the
past 24 hours although the gamma structure remains intact. Regions
402 (S12W44), 403 (S18E54, and 404 (S10E64) were newly numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 397 continues to exhibit the
potential to produce isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated
solar wind speeds and periods of sustained southward Bz allowed for
the observed intervals of isolated active conditions. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels
throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 133
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 135/140/135
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 012/015-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01