Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2008

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Region 980 (S06W03) produced a C1 x-ray flare today at 1527Z. The group appears to be re-emerging but is still small and simple. An eruptive event was observed near plage Region 981 (N27W17) at about 0230Z and was associated with a B1 x-ray event as well as a small CME observed by the COR2 coronagraph on the STEREO-B spacecraft.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (08-10 January).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained elevated throughout the day due to the continuing influence of a high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the first day (08 January). Conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the second day (09 January) and are expected to be quiet for the third day (10 January).

III.  Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan

• Class M    05/05/05
• Class X    01/01/01
• Proton     01/01/01
• PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed           07 Jan 078
• Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  080/080/075
• 90 Day Mean        07 Jan 073

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  012/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  010/010-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

• Active                30/25/10
• Minor storm           15/10/05
• Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

• Active                35/25/10
• Minor storm           15/10/05
• Major-severe storm    10/05/01