Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Jan 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 715 (N06w59) has
decayed to a small single polarity sunspot. New Region 718 (S09E78)
was numbered today and was responsible for occasional B-class
flares. Another active region is rotating into view near S12.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class activity is possible from active
regions near the southeast limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Transient flow, likely the CME activity from 04 and 05 January,
impacted the geomagnetic field first at around 07/0900Z. The
existing elevated solar wind speed increased from 500 km/s to just
over 600 km/s. The major storming followed a period of sustained
southward Bz to near -10 nT between 07/1300 – 1500Z. A second
disturbance passed the ACE spacecraft at 07/2010Z. Only a weak
enhancement was observed on the plasma measurements; however, the
IMF Bz turned sharply southward to near -15 nT. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
this period. The energetic electrons, which have been sustained at
high levels since 03 January, dropped below the high threshold at
approximately 07/1900Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Transient flow
from the CME activity on 04 and 05 January will continue the current
disturbance through 08 January. Periods of minor to major storming
are expected on the 8th. Quiet to active levels are expected on 09
January, before gradually returning to predominantly quiet
conditions on 10 January.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Jan 084
• Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 018/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 025/040-012/020-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/20/15
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/30/20
• Minor storm 30/15/10
• Major-severe storm 20/05/01