Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred. The visible disk remained spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during days 1 – 2 (08 – 09 Feb). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on day 3 (10 Feb) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Feb 071
• Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 007/008-010/012-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/40
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/40
• Minor storm 01/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01