Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 7, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 038 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 733 (S09E78) produced several low level C-class flares
during the period. There is a fair sized penumbral spot that has
just begun to rotate onto the visible disk. Due to the region’s
proximity to the limb further analysis is pending. Region 732
(N09E57) was limited to the production of multiple B-class flares
over the period. Analysis indicates that there is a gamma magnetic
structure in both polarities of this active region. No other
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 732 and 733 are both capable of producing
further C-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The ACE
spacecraft indicated that the onset of a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream began around mid-day. Minor storm conditions
have persisted since 07/1430Z at middle and high latitudes.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated minor
storm conditions possible through 8 February. Unsettled levels with
isolated active periods should dominate 9 and 10 February as the
geoeffective high speed coronal stream wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 07 Feb 103
  • Predicted 08 Feb-10 Feb 110/115/115
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb 006/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Feb 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb 012/015-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb-10 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.