Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations at the ACE satellite indicate a continued slight influence from the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds have ranged from 580 km/s down to 520 km/s during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the forecast period (08-10 December) as the high speed stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Dec 069
• Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 014/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01