Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Dec 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, however, there is the chance for an isolated C-class flare from either Region 977 (S05W16) or 978 (S09E54).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels 08 – 09 December. On 10 December the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Dec 082
• Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 001/001
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/15
• Minor storm 01/01/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05