Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 07 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Very few flares occurred, the
largest being a C3 at 0254 UTC. Just three simple spotted regions
are visible. Today’s 10 cm flux (92) is the lowest since 07
November.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A small transient in the
solar wind passed ACE at 1340 UTC, having a short-lived increase in
radial speed plus a more prolonged strengthening of the total field.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be increasingly more disturbed through the period. A
high speed solar wind stream is anticipated to bring active to minor
storm conditions, beginning near midday on 09 December.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 07 Dec 092
- Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 090/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 014/022
- Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 015/015-025/020-030/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/35/50
- Minor storm 10/20/25
- Major-severe storm 05/10/10
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/45/40
- Minor storm 15/20/40
- Major-severe storm 05/10/15
