Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 7, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Very few flares occurred, the
largest being a C3 at 0254 UTC. Just three simple spotted regions
are visible. Today’s 10 cm flux (92) is the lowest since 07
November.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A small transient in the
solar wind passed ACE at 1340 UTC, having a short-lived increase in
radial speed plus a more prolonged strengthening of the total field.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
again high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be increasingly more disturbed through the period. A
high speed solar wind stream is anticipated to bring active to minor
storm conditions, beginning near midday on 09 December.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 07 Dec 092
  • Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 090/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 014/022
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 015/015-025/020-030/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/35/50
  • Minor storm 10/20/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/45/40
  • Minor storm 15/20/40
  • Major-severe storm 05/10/15

SpaceRef staff editor.