Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Aug 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance of active periods for day one (08 August). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for day two (09 August), with mostly unsettled conditions expected for day three (10 August). The increase in activity is forecast due to a corotating interaction region followed by a high speed coronal hole stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Aug 066
• Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 004/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-015/020-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/35/20
• Minor storm 01/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/40/25
• Minor storm 15/20/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01