Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 966 (S06E21) produced a B1 flare at 06/2248Z. This region has simplified and is now classified as an H-type alpha sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm conditions due to a coronal high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 8 August as the coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 9 August. Conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active, with isolated minor storm periods on 10 August. Isolated major storm periods are also possible at high latitudes on 10 August, in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Aug 069
• Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 008/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/025
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/010-007/010-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/30
• Minor storm 10/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/40
• Minor storm 15/10/30
• Major-severe storm 10/05/15