Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Aug 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Aug 07 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 792 (N10W54) produced a
long duration C1.4 flare at 07/1249 UTC. Region 794 (S13W23) and
Region 795 (N12W13) have remained stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels, with minor
storm conditions observed at high latitudes between 07/0300 – 0600
UTC. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s,
but Bt has decreased to about 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels over the next three
days (08 August – 10 August).

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

• Class M 20/20/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Aug 092
• Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 025/034
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 014/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-010/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/25
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05