Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Aug 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The daily consensus
for Region 655 (S10W38) and 656 (S13E58) have them both exceeding
200 millionths of white light coverage with a magnetic beta
configuration. These regions remain fairly stable only producing
low level B-class flares. A new region was numbered today as Region
658 (S06E50).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 655 and 656 could produce an isolated C-class
event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm conditions observed at 07/0900 UTC. Solar
wind speed has increased from around 340 km/s yesterday to above 460
km/s today and the IMF Bz has fluctuated southward as far as -14 nT.
The conditions seem to be influenced by a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active
conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Aug 095
• Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 100/100/105
• 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 003/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01