Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 7, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 07 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The daily consensus
for Region 655 (S10W38) and 656 (S13E58) have them both exceeding
200 millionths of white light coverage with a magnetic beta
configuration. These regions remain fairly stable only producing
low level B-class flares. A new region was numbered today as Region
658 (S06E50).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 655 and 656 could produce an isolated C-class

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm conditions observed at 07/0900 UTC. Solar
wind speed has increased from around 340 km/s yesterday to above 460
km/s today and the IMF Bz has fluctuated southward as far as -14 nT.
The conditions seem to be influenced by a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 07 Aug 095
  • Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 100/100/105
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 003/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-010/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/15
  • Minor storm 10/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.