Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Aug 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
August 7, 2003
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Aug 2003

SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 421 (S07W72)
produced several flares, including a C1.3 at 07/1203 UTC. Two
C-class flares were produced from an active region just on the other
side of the east limb, the largest a C2.1 at 07/2050 UTC. These
events were optically correlated with SXI imagery. Region 424 has
stabilized in size and magnetic complexity. New Region 430 (S08W13)
was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. C-class flares are possible from Region
421. In the next few days, active regions just beyond the east limb
should begin to appear earthside, which may produce increased solar

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. High
solar wind speeds (up to 700 km/s), associated with a coronal hole in
geoeffective position, are the likely cause of active conditions late
in the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, for day one, due to continued influence of an
equatorial coronal hole. On days two and three, as the coronal hole
rotates out of geoeffective position, activity should decrease to
quiet to unsettled conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

  • Class M 40/45/45
  • Class X 05/10/10
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 07 Aug 137
  • Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 130/130/130
  • 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 034/043
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 010/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 025/040-012/025-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 25/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 35/30/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.