Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S15W56) produced an impulsive C9 flare at 07/0803Z. Region 865 (S11W58) is in decay and now has 7 spots with a total area of 230 millionths. Region 869 (S12E08) has developed into a Dso class spot group. Region 866 (S05W53) has shown little change since yesterday.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 865.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 08 April. On 09 and 10 April, unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected due to a high speed stream from a transequatorial coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr

• Class M 15/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Apr 095
• Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 095/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 002/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 005/008-012/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/20
• Minor storm 01/15/05
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/40/30
• Minor storm 05/25/10
• Major-severe storm 01/15/05