Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Apr 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 07 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at
ACE continued to decline over the period from approximately 500 km/s
to 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 and 09 April. On 10 April,
quiet to active conditions are expected due to the effects of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 07 Apr 088
• Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 090/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 007/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 005/008-005/008-008/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/30
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05