Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. A single period of
unsettled levels was observed at mid-latitudes between 06/03-06Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on day one (07 September). Quiet
to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible at high
latitudes, are expected on days two and three (08-09 September). The
increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed
stream that is expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 069
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/25
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/25/30
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01