Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Sep 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with some isolated unsettled to active periods. Solar wind speed as observed by ACE continued to be elevated throughout the day, with values ranging between 480 to 560 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the last 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (07 September) and is expected to be predominantly quiet for the second and third days (08-09 September).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Sep 066
• Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 007/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/15/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/20/05
• Minor storm 15/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01