Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the last 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with minor storm periods possible at high latitudes on 7 September due to a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions will prevail on 8 September. Expect quiet conditions to return on 9 September.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Sep 067
• Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 010/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 008/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

• A. Middle Latitudes
• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01