Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Sep 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Sep 06 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of a few B-class flares, mostly from Region 667 (S11E09). New Region
671 (S10W29) emerged on the disk today and is a small, D-type group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 667, 669 (S07E19), and 671 have the potential
for producing isolated C-class events during the next three days
(07-09 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past
24 hours. There was one active period from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind
data indicate a small increase in speed during the past 24 hours,
and the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz is fluctuating
between +6 and -6 nT. These signatures are suggestive of a weak
coronal hole wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days
(07-09 September).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Sep 107
- Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/110/115
- 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 005/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 20/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
