Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Sep 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
September 6, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of a few B-class flares, mostly from Region 667 (S11E09). New Region
671 (S10W29) emerged on the disk today and is a small, D-type group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 667, 669 (S07E19), and 671 have the potential
for producing isolated C-class events during the next three days
(07-09 September).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past
24 hours. There was one active period from 0900-1200 UTC. Solar wind
data indicate a small increase in speed during the past 24 hours,
and the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz is fluctuating
between +6 and -6 nT. These signatures are suggestive of a weak
coronal hole wind stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days
(07-09 September).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Sep 107
  • Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/110/115
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 005/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 012/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.