Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Sep 2003
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 453 (S23W69)
produced occasional point brightenings and some weak surging, but
was otherwise stable. New Region 455 (S16E32) was numbered today. No
other significant activity was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Low C-class flares are possible from Region 453.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with very isolated
active periods. A high speed coronal hole stream that has been in
effect over the past few days continues to subside, declining to
near 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. A
recurrent coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on
day two through day three and produce occasional active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Sep 105
- Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 105/100/095
- 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/011
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/25/40
- Minor storm 05/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/50
- Minor storm 05/15/20
- Major-severe storm 01/05/10
