Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. A slow moving CME off the west limb was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 05/1946Z. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels all three days of the forecast period (07 – 09 October).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Oct 067
• Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01