Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 679
(S10E66), a spotless plage region, produced a B9.0 flare at 05/2317
UTC and a C2.5 flare at 06/1834.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Oct 092
• Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05