Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Nov 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1007 (N35W84) was stable as it approached the west limb. No new active regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from active to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels at high latitudes on day 1 (07 November) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (08 November). A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (09 November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Nov 069
- Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 069/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 000/000
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/030-010/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 50/30/10
- Minor storm 35/10/01
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/35/15
- Minor storm 50/15/05
- Major-severe storm 20/05/01
