Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 921 (S06W39) produced a long duration C2 flare at 06/1051Z. A C8 flare occurred at 06/1746Z, with an associated Type II radio sweep and tenflare. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery indicates an associated CME from the east limb at 06/1854Z. A new CME-producing active region is just starting to rotate onto the east limb as seen on EIT/SXI imagery.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 07-08 November. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 9 November as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Nov 084
• Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 085/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/005-005/005-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/45
• Minor storm 10/10/25
• Major-severe storm 05/05/10