Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Nov 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Nov 06 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 820 (S17W41) produced a C1 flare at 06/1443 UTC. This region continues to increase in area; however, it remains a simple beta magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for isolated C-flares from Region 820.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE has declined to approximately 600 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Nov 082
• Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 010/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01