Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Nov 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

November 6, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region
696 (N09W08) produced an M9/2n major flare at 06/0034Z. This flare
had an associated Tenflare of 2700 sfu’s, a Type IV spectral radio
sweep, a Type II spectral radio sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 523 km/sec, strong discrete frequency radio bursts, and
a partial halo CME seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery. A impulsive M1 x-ray
event occurred later in the period at 06/1953Z. This region
continues to show growth in penumbral coverage and magnetic
complexity. Region 693 (S15W57) continues to decay and exhibits a
simple north-south magnetic inversion line. Regions 697 (N05W52)
and 698 (S10W42) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels for the next three days due to the
complexity of Region 696.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The ACE spacecraft
indicates that there should be a shock passage early on 07 November
allowing for minor to major storm conditions due to the full halo
CME resulting from the M5 event on 03 November. A weaker shock may
also arrive later on 07 November due to the long duration C6/Sf
event that resulted in a partial halo CME that occurred on 04
November at 0905Z. Another potential shock passage is expected on
08 November resulting from the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray
events and associated partial halo CME that occurred yesterday could
produce periods of minor storming. The M9/2n event that produced
yet another partial halo CME that occurred today should arrive Earth
on 09 November in tandem with the onset of a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream which may result in periods of minor to major
storm conditions. A slight chance of a greater than 10 MeV proton
flux event in association with a major flare from Region 696 remains
worthy of note.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov