Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 07-08 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. On 09 May the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 May 078
• Predicted 07 May-09 May 075/075/070
• 90 Day Mean 06 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 000/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 006/008-006/010-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01